The Forecasting Model

A numerical 3-D model has been implemented in the Adriatic Sea aiming to follow and to forecast hypo-anoxic events. The model solves a set of equations representing marine dynamics (including vertical and horizontal advection and diffusion processes of oxygen) and biogeochemical fluxes (including oxygen simplified consumption and production).

Every day the model, received the river runoff and atmospheric numerical forecast data, computes dissolved oxygen (and biogeochemical parameters) evolution during the following 48 hours in the whole study area (see an example of forecast in the Rimini area). The showed good results are further improved by including (assimilating) the EMMA buoy and monitoring network data.

The produced forecast is used by the Decision Supporting System (DSS).